2012 is a momentous year in health care and Health Care Reform for several reasons:
1. The Supreme Court of the United States is scheduled to hear six hours of oral argument starting on March 26th, with an expected verdict some time in June of this year.
2. The 2012 election is scheduled on November 6th. One of the key issues of this year’s presidential election is Health Care Reform.
3. A number of challenges facing the economy and Health Care Reform are effective on January 1, 2013.
Let’s look at these areas one at a time.
Supreme Court Case
Subsequent to the passage of Health Care Reform, twenty-six states sued the Federal Government over the constitutionality of this law. Specifically, the following key areas will be addressed at the Supreme Court starting on Monday, March 26th. Both the left and the right are planning to state their views ( pro and con) in front of the Supreme Court while the trial is taking place. The trial will focus on some key areas as noted below:
• Is the individual mandate constitutional?
• Is Health Care Reform severable? In other words, if one component of Health Care Reform is ruled unconstitutional, does that mean the rest of the law can be implemented?
• Does the Medicare provision ( relaxing Medicaid eligibility to 133% of the Federal Poverty Level for all states) constitute coercion?
Regarding the mandate, many commentators are predicting a very close vote in the Supreme Court. If the mandate is overturned, the Republicans will claim a victory from the overreach of Obamacare. President Obama and the Obama Administration will, no doubt, paint the Supreme Court as leaning far to the right, and thus try to marginalize its decision with the electorate prior to the presidential election.
Conversely, if the mandate is upheld, President Obama and the Democrats will claim victory regarding the mandate, as well as the validity of the law itself. This will give the Obama Administration a boost going into the presidential election.
Regardless of the decision, Obamacare is likely to be here to stay. The odds of a total repeal appear to be extremely remote. The following would have to happen in November for Obamacare to be repealed in toto: 1) The Republicans retain control of the House; 2) The Republican nominee wins the presidency and 3) Republicans win a filibuster-proof majority ( 60+) in the Senate.
The 2012 Presidential Election
Health Care Reform is one of the key issues in this year’s election. Some other key issues are 1) jobs and the economy; 2) the rising price of oil and 3) foreign policy. President Obama’s recent decision that certain religious organizations would not not be exempt from Obamacare and must comply with offering contraceptives ( including abortifacients ), while forcing the insurance industry to pay for these procedures, was quite controversial. The Catholic church has vowed to challenge this ruling. Thus, this dispute will likely play out in the months to come before the general election. To counter this argument, Democrats are portraying this argument as a women’s health issue ( rather than a freedom of religion issue).
What to Expect in 2013
This year will be marked by a lot of activity regarding Health Care Reform as noted above. However, the next President will have many challenges facing him when he is sworn in early next year. Here are a few issues that will be facing him:
• The continued implementation of Obamacare- Not only will the regulations continue to be written ( expect more surprises), but some key taxes of Obamacare will be implemented. A Medicare tax ( .9% above certain income thresholds), a tax on income ( 3.8% above these same income thresholds) and a 2.3% tax on medical device manufacturers will start next year to help pay for Obamacare.
• The anticipated $5 Trillion in fiscal decisions that will be left to a lame duck Congress between November 6, 2012 and New Year’s Eve. Perhaps the most important provision-whether to let the Bush tax cuts expire.
Summary
Whatever happens, 2012 promises to be highly charged politically. The decisions that are made this year will have profound implications for the economy and Obamacare. And, please note that the most far-reaching provisions of Obamacare will be one year later ( 2014). That’s when provisions such as the penalties for non-compliance ( and the individual mandate, if it’s ruled constitutional) take effect.